With inflation moving up to 11.42 per cent amid fears that the latest surge in crude oil prices, now ruling at $142 per barrel, will further boost the current upward inflationary spiral, indications are that things could soon get worse. There is a limit to what the finance ministry or the Reserve Bank can do to bring down prices at a time when global oil and commodity prices do not register even a marginal fall. This is arguably not the best of times for New Delhi to even hint at the likelihood of early parliamentary elections or a substantial shakeup of the existing arrangements that hold the UPA coalition together and ensure the government’s survival. Yet, its decision, largely influenced by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s insistence to take the Indo-US nuclear deal to the next stage prior to operationalising it, in the face of the Left’s opposition, is bound to usher in a phase of political uncertainty, if not instability.
Admittedly, the nuclear deal has come to be known as Dr Singh’s baby, and he is now staking the prime ministership itself on its acceptance and clearance. UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi and the coalition partners are no doubt averse to letting the Prime Minister down, but it is no secret they are also quite uncomfortable over losing the Left’s support and facing the electorate earlier than they had hoped to. Predictably, all parties are assessing the options than can buy more time and avert a Lok Sabha poll before its normal schedule. Unsurprisingly, speculation is rife over the possible option of jettisoning the Prime Minister to save the government although it is being suggested that it will be resorted to only if the current reservations among the UPA allies crystallise into overwhelming resistance arising out of the threat of early elections.
The Left has been uncharitable to Dr. Singh in suggesting that he places the “strategic partnership” with the United States higher than national interests and so is helping President George W. Bush to secure the nuclear deal before he leaves office. The Left holds Dr Singh responsible for precipitating the current political crisis, arguing that his “renewed bid” to go to the International Atomic Energy Agency to get the safeguards agreement approved violates the government’s November 2007 agreement with it. There is some merit to this argument. However, what is really relevant is the risk the Congress-UPA will incur in going to the country at a time when the dice is heavily loaded against it, the electorate is reeling under inflation’s impact, the popular mood following the fuel price hike remains unforgiving, and the BJP-NDA Opposition is gleefully waiting for the kill. The UPA could lose the battle before it is joined.
Dr Singh runs an even bigger risk by rushing ahead with the deal when the objective ground situation at home do not commend the deal or the long-term gains from it for energy security. The loss of power resulting from an electoral debacle will also be laid at his door. At this crucial juncture, he needs to do a serious rethink on whether or not the benefits flowing from the deal will outweigh the possible adverse fallout from its frenzied pursuit. Sometimes it pays to hasten slowly.
